Tariffs, Job Loss, and the Class of 2026: What Future Graduates Must Understand Now
Dr. Marcia F. Robinson is a senior certified HR professional, diversity strategist, and curator of TheHBCUCareerCenter.com. She advises organizations on building inclusive talent pipelines and improving diversity recruiting outcomes.
Economic policy decisions made by government rarely feel personal when they are being conceived. In fact, we disregard many of them, because we feel they may never really touch our personal lives. For some of us who are workplace watchers, we try to stay aware of what may be coming around the corner. And when you are a HR professional, you recognize that what rolls out of the government agency could eventually work its way through the corporate office onto the factory floor. Ultimately, it will impact work, workers and workflows all up and down the value chain…but I digress.
Back to macro economic policy decisions…They get made and then one day, we wake up and these policy decisions have reached the labor market. Just like some of us anticipated they would.
Recent analysis of the 2025 tariff environment in the US, suggests measurable consequences are taking place in the workplace.
In Fall 2025, projections from the Yale Budget Lab indicated that U.S. payroll employment could be roughly 490,000 lower by the end of 2025. At the same time, Federal Reserve research pointed to slower monthly job growth in tariff-exposed sectors. Effectively, the reports suggest that an unsteady tariff landscape could cost the economy thousands of potential jobs each month.
For HR leaders, this was not just abstract data. It was a signal.
For us at The HBCU Career Center, it was a warning for the Class of 2026. Maybe for those paying attention, it could be an opportunity to start thinking about your career early.
Graduates entering the workforce during periods of macro policy-driven economic friction, like we have now, often face three realities:
1. Fewer entry-level openings.
When job growth slows, employers protect their margins by delaying hiring. Early-career roles—traditionally the doorway into corporate and workplace America—are often the first to shrink. Typically, this happens right before the mid-level managers get touched.
2. Higher expectations for “day-one readiness.”
In tighter labor markets, employers hire fewer people with broader skill sets and expect more productivity from each one. Skills, internships, certifications, and technology fluency move from “nice to have” to non-negotiable.
3. Increased competition across experience levels.
When mid-career professionals struggle to move upward during slowdowns, they remain in—or return to—roles typically filled by new graduates. They pick up more duties and this compresses the entire talent pipeline.
Please note that I haven't mentioned the silent visitor, AI, creeping into every workplace. So, even though I mentioned three historic realities, there is this other mega reality we don’t fully understand yet. Right now though we know things are changing rapidly.
So given the three historical realities plus AI, our two decades in the career space tells us something powerful:
Graduating into uncertainty often produces the most adaptive, innovative professionals.
This is where strategy matters.
At The HBCU Career Center, we teach students to anchor their career decisions in the Real V.I.S.A. Framework—Values, Interests, Skills, and Abilities—because personal clarity always works well in unstable economies. So while public policies may slow hiring, it cannot stop preparation.
For the Class of 2026, it is NOT too late to be thinking about these actions:
Focus less on your degree title and more on the skills you have.
Call out your digital literacy acumen and have real, non-trivial examples of using those skills.
Pursue paid experience early—internships, apprenticeships, project work.
Research and target growth sectors less sensitive to tariff volatility.
Understand your own Values, Interests, Skills and Abilities so you can develop the confidence to spot and engage with opportunities, not simply wait for them.
Tariffs may reduce job counts on paper, but preparation multiplies opportunity in practice.
And the graduates who understand that difference will not simply enter the evolving future of work—they will shape it.